India Commercial Vehicle sector on a strong growth path

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Low base likely to push growth further in coming months

The Commercial Vehicle (CV) sector, which is considered to be the barometer of an economy, recorded a surge of 19.9% in unit sales during FY18. The remarkable feature of this growth has been recovery post GST implementation (Image 1). Overall sales of CVs increased by 34% and 31% respectively in Q4CY17 and Q1CY18 after a decline of 9% in Q2CY17.

India CV qtr sales growth rate[Image 1: India CV quarterly unit sales and y-o-y change]

At the same time, the 12-month moving sum of CV sales witnessed sharp northwards movement post July-17 (Image 2). We assign this surge to fleet owners’ bulk buying post GST implementation. Moreover, this trend is expected to continue in coming months given improved macro-conditions at ground level, huge pent-up demand, the higher average age of the fleet and lower comparable (Q2CY17 was down 9% y-o-y).

India CV Sales Trend 12-Month Moving Sum[Image 2: India CV unit sales 12-month moving sum] Read the rest of this entry »

These 3 companies witness drop in long-term news sentiment to 2-year low

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FiND media coverage study for BSE 100 index companies showed a significant deterioration in the long-term news sentiment for Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Vakrangee and fraud-hit Punjab National Bank (PNB).

These 3 companies have been receiving negative press coverage for quite some time. As a result, news sentiment 200-day moving average (DMA) for these 3 companies dipped to a 2-year low on Apr. 17, 2018.

BSE 100 Sentiment 200 DMA - 17-April-18[Image 1: Compare screen shows Sentiment 200-DMA] Read the rest of this entry »

Consistent delay in PF payment is a lead for deterioration in financials: FiND study

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Publically available data from Employees’ Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) is an important piece of information that can be consumed in risk assessment of corporate borrowers. In our view, deep-dive analytics on EPFO data can offer unique insights into the company’s functioning.

Through analysis of EPFO data, the banks can find out whether the companies in their loan portfolio are depositing employees’ provident fund (PF) on time or not; and whether there is any significant drop in the PF amount deposited by the company. At the same time, lenders can also identify companies which are downsizing the workforce.   

FiND Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) consists of 25+ business rules that analyze the EPFO data for the companies every month. One of the key business rules is a delay in PF payment for a given month. In our view, a delay in PF payment may imply liquidity crunch for the company and hence it is a red flag for the banks. 

Our hypothesis is that red flags related to PF payment can act as a leading indicator to the deterioration in the company’s financial performance. To test this hypothesis, we back-tested our engine on EPFO data for three months (Jan-17, Feb-17, and Mar-17) on the below-mentioned business rule:

Delay in monthly payment of PF by more than 10 days for more than 50 employees

From our EPFO data universe of 1,250+ companies, FiND EWS identified 35 companies who have delayed PF payment for all 3 months.

Then, we checked if there is any deterioration in the financial performance (captured by FiND Financial Risk score) for these companies post-March 2017 quarter. 

We found that: 86% of companies (30/35) witnessed a deterioration in Financial Risk score in the subsequent quarters.

We highlight 10 such companies below:
PF shortlisted cos
[Image 1: Financial Risk Score for 10 Companies with PF red flags]
Read the rest of this entry »

FiND News Sentiment strategy beats the stock market

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With a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage, Heckyl has developed a strategy based on FiND News Sentiment Indicator for identifying bullish/ bearish patterns for the benchmark index, sector as well as individual stocks.

FiND News Sentiment Indicator reflects the underlying sentiment of news coverage on the companies. The strategy based on this indicator signals the potential impact of the news sentiment on the value of underlying index or stock.

We have constructed our strategy by taking moving averages of FiND News Sentiment Indicator. Our system generates bullish/ bearish signals based on the crossover of shorter-term (20-days) and longer-term (60-days) moving averages of FiND News Sentiment Indicator. 

Bullish: When short-term 20-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator is above long-term 60-DMA, underlying index or stock tends to rise. It reflects an improvement in news sentiment in recent time when compared with the past 2-months.

Bearish: When short-term 20-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator is below long-term 60-DMA, underlying index or stock tends to fall. It shows a deterioration in news sentiment in recent time when compared with the past 2-months.

For simplicity, we have defined sentiment intensity as a difference between 20-DMA and 60-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator to showcase bullish and bearish phases.

When the value of sentiment intensity is above 0 (20-DMA > 60-DMA), then it is a sign of bullish trend ahead. On the other hand, fall in sentiment intensity value below 0 level (20-DMA < 60-DMA) reflects bearish trend ahead.

Our back-testing proved the application of FiND News Sentiment Strategy for trading/ investment in the market. FiND News Sentiment strategy has outperformed benchmark index, sector and stock returns across time periods.

Here, we are presenting the case study on the Nifty index, Nifty Pharma and Sun Pharma to showcase how bullish/bearish signals defined by News Sentiment Strategy can help trader/ investor for beating the index/ stock returns.

NIFTY INDEX

We analyzed over 1.56 lakh news items for 50 companies within the Nifty index for the past 3-years. Out the total, 1,19,162 news items were positive, while 37,175 news items were negative.

As can be seen in below chart (Image 1), bullish/bearish signals based on news sentiment strategy can give an early indication of upward/downward movement for the 50-share index.

1. Nifty - Sentiment[Image 1: Nifty Index and Bullish/ Bearish Period defined by Sentiment Intensity]

If a trader/ investor was to buy/sell Nifty as per the bullish/bearish signal and hold the position for the period till the signal reverses versus an investment in Nifty, the returns would be significantly higher.

2. Nifty - Sentiment - Returns[Image 2: Returns based on Sentiment Signal and Nifty Index performance] Read the rest of this entry »

Japan Airlines delivers industry-beating on-time performance; Air India consistently lags on punctuality

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The on-time performance (OTP) is one of the most important performance indicators for airlines. It shows how frequently the airline has managed to operate flights within the declared scheduled time.

OTP is a measure of service quality/ punctuality. The higher OTP can help airlines to meet its customer expectations. At the same time, improvement in customer service can also boost airline’s profitability.

Over the past 24-months, OTP for Japan Airlines has consistently outperformed the industry average. On the other hand, OTP for state-run Air India has consistently remained below the industry average in the last 24-months except April 2017.

ONTIME PERFORMANCE

Heckyl’s alternative data platform FiND collects and organizes macro, micro, and financial data to provide unique insights into aviation sector.

To know more about FiND, email us at find@heckyl.com

M&M races ahead of Maruti, Tata Motors with a surge in news sentiment to 5-yr high

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Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), one of the leading automobile companies in India, witnessed a surge in news sentiment to a 5-year high helped by extremely positive media coverage in March 2018. A slew of new product launches by M&M over the past 1-month lifted news sentiment to the highest level in the past 5-years.

With buoyant media coverage, M&M has surpassed news sentiment of both Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors in March 2018 for the first time in the last 16-months.

Top Automakers - Sentiment 100 DMA - April 7[Image 1: Compare screen highlights news sentiment 100-DMA]

A series of positive news items highlighting new product launches, alternative energy and partnerships during the past 1-month pushed M&M’s news sentiment 100-day moving average (DMA) to 84.11 on Apr. 7, 2018.  Read the rest of this entry »

Track clinical trials in FiND Calendar to spot new opportunities in pharma sector

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With a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage, Heckyl has built an alternative data platform FiND which collects and organizes macro, micro, and financial data to provide unique insights into pharmaceutical sector.

In our view, trading opportunities can be spotted in the stock market by discovery and analysis of vast amount of alternative data available on the web. One such data set is clinical trial study results for pharmaceutical companies.

Clinical trials are research studies that explore whether a drug or device is safe and effective for humans. The pharmaceutical products go through three phases of clinical trials followed by a regulatory approval process. After completing all three phases and the approval process, the company can start monetizing the drug or device.

The drugmakers report the progress of ongoing clinical trials for each phase from time to time. The result of late study trials (phase 2 and 3) can provide the best idea about a drug’s chances of approval. A favorable result of late study trials can be seen as positive by the market and vice-versa.

To help traders/ investors, we have introduced Calendar which tracks release dates for clinical trial, drug approval, patent expiry, operating stats and industry events.

We present a case study on Clearside Biomedical, Inc., a late-stage biopharmaceutical company developing drug therapies to treat back-of-the-eye diseases.

On Mar. 5, 2018, Clearside announced positive topline results from its pivotal Phase 3 clinical trial of suprachoroidal CLS-TA in patients with macular edema associated with non-infectious uveitis (Image 1).

Clearside calendar news
(Image 1: News screen for Clearside) Read the rest of this entry »

News mentions for Chanda Kochhar surge amid Videocon loan controversy

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Chanda Kochhar, managing director and chief executive officer, ICICI Bank, has been in the news lately after a controversy erupted over a conflict of interest in loan approved to the Videocon Group. There were reports in the media that Chanda Kochhar allegedly favored Videocon Group while granting Rs 3,250 crore loan.

News 1News 7News 5

However, ICICI Bank board termed the allegations as “malicious and unfounded” against its MD and CEO and reposed faith and confidence in Chanda Kochhar.

News 4

As the name of Chanda Kochhar cropped up in the Videocon loan controversy, news mentions for ICICI Bank chief surged towards the end of March.

ICICI Bank News - Mentions Read the rest of this entry »

How News based EWS can identify distress corporate borrowers ahead of time

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Corporate default or bankruptcy do not happen overnight. There is a sequence of events such as layoffs, legal/ regulatory issues and management change leading to default or bankruptcy.

In our view, unstructured data sets such as news is an important piece of information that can detect such a sequence of events prior to default. 

Our hypothesis is that deep-dive analytics on news data can capture the pre-default behavior of corporates. At the same time, it can also help banks to identify distress corporate borrowers ahead of time. 

To test our hypothesis, we analyzed news data for 12 US-based oil and gas exploration & production companies which went bankrupt in the past 2-years. 

Key takeways from News EWS study

Here, we present one such case of SandRidge Energy Inc which filed for bankruptcy protection in May 2016.

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SandRidge Sequence of Events

FiND Credit Risk EWS captures company-related red-flags based on a variety of business rules. Our intelligent EWS application can help lenders to get an early warning about the deterioration in corporate borrowers’ financial profile ahead of time.

To know more about FiND Credit Risk EWS, email us at info@heckyl.com

 

 

 

Analyzing Tesla’s recent downfall through an innovative lens

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FiND News Analytics and Litigation product tracks and analyses news + legal cases from thousands of data sources in real time. We have a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage by “discovery and analysis” of the news flow and legal cases in real time.

Of late, Tesla stocks have tumbled by quite. The stock price downfall coincided with negative news coverage. A review of company media coverage shows that most of the negative news items were related to Legal, Recalls, and Bankruptcy.

Sentiment and Price Read the rest of this entry »

99% of companies with significant promoter share pledging witnessed deterioration in financials: FiND Study

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Recent fraud at Punjab National Bank (PNB) worth Rs 145 billion has once again brought to the fore the inadequate risk management in the Indian banking system. There is no denying that banks need to strengthen their existing risk management systems to avoid such frauds and arrest alarming rate of growth in stress assets.

There is a plethora of actionable data available on the web which can not only help banks be vigilant on a particular borrower but also help decide whether to increase the credit limit to a certain borrower. One such data set is promoters’ pledged shares holding, which can be consumed in risk assessment of corporate borrowers.

In our view, substantial pledging of shares by the promoters is a potential red-flag as it is an indication of the stress that has piled up on corporate finances. Moreover, a significant drop in the company’s share price may result in the invocation of pledged shares. This may also lead to loss of management control for the promoters.

At the same time, red flags related to promoter pledged shares can act as a leading indicator to the deterioration in the company’s financial performance. To test this hypothesis, we back-tested our business rule output to find out companies with a significantly higher percentage of pledged shares for the December 2016 quarter. We applied the below-mentioned rule to identify such companies:

Promoter’s pledged shares % is more than 50% of total promoter shareholding

Our system identified 269 companies meeting the above rule for the December 2016 quarter. As a next step, we checked if there is any deterioration in the financial performance (captured by FiND Financial Risk score) for these 269 companies post-December 2016 quarter.

We found that: 99% of companies witnessed a deterioration in Financial Risk score in the subsequent quarters. Read the rest of this entry »

Insight from FiND: Did you MISS the recent opportunity to short Facebook?

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FiND, an alternative data platform, analyses news + data from thousands of sources (including social media) in real time. We have a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage by “discovery and analysis” of the news flow in real time. Our proprietary Sentiment Engine analyzes news by applying NLP and various business rules to capture underlying sentiment (positive/ negative/ neutral) accurately.

Earlier this week, the shares of Facebook were beaten down at the Wall Street due to a privacy failure by the social media giant. It’s surfaced that Cambridge Analytica improperly used the data of 50 million Facebook users to manipulate voters in US Presidential Election 2016.

News reports highlighting concerns over privacy of FB users’ data and misuse of social network platform have been making the rounds across mainstream media for months now. The negative media coverage highlighting these concerns gathered momentum during this month. However, the stock corrected sharply only after the media reported the misuse of FB users data by Cambridge Analytica. We highlight some of the news items captured by FiND below:

FB NEWS FLOW
[Image 1: Company News Screen for FB]
Read the rest of this entry »

Geneva Motor Show 2018: EVs steal the show; Volkswagen, Tata Motors lead product launch news coverage

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Geneva Motor Show 2018 turned to be one of the most successful shows in recent years. Now that it has come to an end, we at Heckyl believe that success of the OEMs in showcasing new products/launches can be measured by the amount of media coverage they have received.  

One clear message, visible from the attention given by Press and the OEMs, was that Electric Vehicles are arriving earlier than expected. See below our Buzzwords compilation for passenger vehicle industry from last one month’s new flow (Image 1).

Industry
[Image 1: Buzzwords for Auto Industry]

At OEMs level, auto behemoth Volkswagen is back in the news for all the good reasons. A surprise inclusion in the list was that of Tata Motors whose news coverage came close 4th, almost in line with Toyota Motor but ahead of i-series manufacture BMW. We believe that this jump in news for Tata Motors can be attributed to the launch of Jaguar’s all-electric I-PACE at Geneva.

This assumption is further strengthened by the fact that in Product launch category (yes, you can search and analyze news by categories in FiND, Heckyl’s News and Data Terminal!), Tata Motors jumped to the second position in last one month’s news coverage (Image 2). 

SHARE OF VOICE - TOP AUTO MAKERS
[Image 2: Share of Voice] Read the rest of this entry »

Drop in promoter holding is a lead for deterioration in financials: FiND study

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Promoter ownership data is an important piece of information that can be consumed in risk assessment of corporate borrowers. This is because steep fall in promoter ownership could mean low confidence of promoters in their own company. Moreover, promoter equity dilution may also invite a change in management.

Our hypothesis is that promoter ownership related red flags such as a significant drop in promoter shareholding can act as a leading indicator to the deterioration in the company’s financial performance.

To test this hypothesis, we back-tested business rule output derived from FiND Credit Risk Early Warning System for all listed companies. Our back-testing has shown 298 promoter ownership related red flags for 232 companies for the March 2016 quarter.

As a next step, we have checked if there is any deterioration in the company’s performance captured by our Financial Risk score for these 232 companies over the last 2 years.

We found that: 85% of companies witnessed a deterioration in Financial Risk score in the subsequent quarters.

Ownership data study stats Read the rest of this entry »

Rajnish Kumar leads news and social media mentions among top bankers in past 3-months: FiND study

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Rajnish Kumar, chairman, State Bank of India topped the news and social media mentions among the leading bankers in the country during the past 3-months, FiND analysis showed.

Uday Kotak (vice chairman & MD, Kotak Mahindra Bank) and Chanda Kochhar (CEO and MD, ICICI Bank) secured the second and third position respectively in media share of voice in the past 3-months (Image 1).

CXOs - Share of Voice(Image 1: Media mentions for top bankers)

SBI, India’s largest public sector lender led the share of voice for both news and social media among leading banks in the past 3-months. Meanwhile, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were top two private sector lenders securing the second and third position respectively in media share of voice in the past 3-months. Read the rest of this entry »

Dilip Buildcon media sentiment strongest among its peers in Feb’18

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Highway developer Dilip Buildcon received extremely positive media coverage during the past 1-month. Buoyant media coverage lifted Dilip Buildcon’s news sentiment (50-day moving average DMA) to the highest level in the past 1-year on Feb. 23, 2018.

We highlight media coverage trends for Dilip Buildcon below:

#1. At 43, Dilip Buildcon’s news sentiment 50-DMA was the highest among its peers. On the other hand, news sentiment 50-DMA for Sadbhav Infrastructure Project was the lowest among highway developers.

Dilip Buildcon - Sentiment Peers
[Image 1: Sentiment Score (50-DMA) Peer Comparison]
#2. Contracts related news flow dominated media coverage for Dilip Buildcon in the past 1-month.
Dilip Buildcon - Categories
[Image 2: Top News Categories]

Read the rest of this entry »

Tesla Model S outsells German rivals in Europe for first time in 4 years

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2017 was the first year when Tesla’s Model S outsold its German rivals in the luxury sedan segment in Europe. Model S was launched in Europe in 2013, the same year as Mercedes S-Class and has been the main rival of S-class till 2016 before outpacing it in 2017 (Image 1).

Globally, Model S remains Tesla’s best-selling model and constituted more than half (53%) of the global deliveries in FY17.

Tesla - German peers - Annual Sales[Image 1: Luxury sedan annual retail sales in Europe for top 4 players]

Model S retail sales grew at a staggering 38.6% in 2017. On the other hand, BMW 7-Series and Mercedes S-Class recorded a drop of 13.4% and 1.4% respectively in 2017. Meanwhile, Audi A-8 reported a modest growth of 9.6% in 2017. Read the rest of this entry »

Strong chronic segment sales power growth in Indian pharma market

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The Indian pharma market has grown at an 8% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) during the calendar year 2013-2017, helped by impressive growth in chronic segment sales. The pharma sales stood at USD 17.87 billion for the moving annual total (MAT) ended December 2017, up from USD 13.35 billion in CY13 (Image 1). On a year-on-year basis, the pharma market witnessed an 8.83% increase in sales for twelve months ended December 2017.

IPM Growth CAGR
[Image 1: The Indian pharma market sales – moving annual total]

The chronic segment (a disease that persists over a long period of time such as diabetes, high blood pressure, Alzheimer etc.), which accounts for 32% of total Indian pharma market, staged a stellar performance during the CY13-17 period. Changes in lifestyle and food habits coupled with higher disposable income fueled growth in chronic diseases in recent years. Read the rest of this entry »

Dr. Reddy’s news sentiment lowest among BSE500 cos

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FiND media coverage study showed negative news sentiment for one-in-ten BSE500 companies during January 2018.

Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd, one of the leading drug makers in India, is one such company whose news sentiment has deteriorated significantly during the month of January 2018.

We highlight media coverage trends for Dr. Reddy’s below:

#1. News sentiment decelerates ahead of fall in the stock price
Dr Reddys - Sentiment - Chart
[Image 1: Sentiment Score 20 DMA versus Stock Price Performance]

#2: At negative 37, Dr. Reddy’s sentiment score 20-DMA was the lowest among its peers
Dr Reddys Sentiment comparison[Image 2: Sentiment Score Peer Comparison] Read the rest of this entry »

Extremely bullish news sentiment supports oil price rise: FiND

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Crude oil price has demonstrated a strong rally over the past 5-months. On Thursday, crude oil WTI futures jumped above USD 66 per barrel for the first time in more than three years. The rally in crude oil prices was supported by OPEC’s extension of production cut, strong demand and continuous drop in the US stockpiles of crude oil.

FiND, an alternative data platform developed by Heckyl showed the demand for crude oil has been outstripping supply consistently since February last year (Image 1).

Oil Demand Supply
[Image 1: Crude Oil Supply-Demand Balance]

At the same time, the US crude oil inventories have been witnessing downtrend for the past 10-months (Image 2).

US Oil Inventory
[Image 2: US Crude Oil Inventory] Read the rest of this entry »

Oil prices can play spoilsport to airline stocks rally

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2017 was a fantastic year for airline stocks as relatively lower oil prices, higher demand and improved operational performance brightened the outlook for the sector. However, after a solid performance last year, the global airline industry is bracing for an oil shock in 2018. The recent run-up in oil prices, if sustained, may exert a significant drag on airlines profitability in this year.

Stock returns
[Image 1: Watchlist highlights stock returns for leading airlines as on Jan. 24, 2018
(*For US-based companies, returns as on Jan. 23, 2018)]

In 2017, jet fuel prices averaged at USD 1.5 per gallon for the first 3-quarters. A spike in crude oil moved jet fuel average price to USD 1.74 per gallon in Q4’17 from USD 1.59 per gallon in Q3’17. The impact of 9.4% sequential rise in jet fuel prices in Q4 was clearly visible in recently announced quarterly numbers of leading airlines.

For instance, Delta Air Lines witnessed an 8% y-o-y drop in net income in Q4’17 owning to 21% rise in fuel cost. At the same time, CASM (cost per available seat mile) – Fuel for Delta rose significantly by 38.67% sequentially to USD 0.03 in Q4’17.

Delta - CASM Fuel
[Image 2: Compare screen highlights trend for Delta Air Lines’ CASM – Fuel and Jet Fuel] Read the rest of this entry »

Sensex cos aggregate revenues likely to grow in Q3: Heckyl news study

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Heckyl news study has indicated a rise in Sensex companies’ aggregate revenues for the third quarter of the financial year 2018. Heckyl has developed an indicator to measure Sensex companies’ revenue visibility through analysis of growth-oriented news flow for the quarter. Our analysis showed that the movement in growth-oriented news flow and its underlying sentiment for the particular quarter can accordingly move Sensex companies’ aggregate revenues in the subsequent quarter.
We have analyzed nearly 60,000 growth-oriented news items for Sensex companies for the past 10-quarters. We identified 15 growth-oriented news categories which can have the potential impact on the company’s future revenue growth. Some of the growth-oriented news categories are contracts, expansion, product launch, M&A, fund-raising and business transactions. Based on the news volume and sentiment for these growth-oriented categories, we have prepared Heckyl Company Growth Indicator for Sensex companies.
Our back-testing has shown a strong positive 1-quarter lead-lag correlation (0.79) between Heckyl Company Growth Indicator (leading indicator) and aggregate quarterly net sales (lagging indicator) for Sensex companies for September 2015 to September 2017 period. In other words, Heckyl Growth Indicator for September 2017 quarter can act as a leading indicator for Sensex companies’ aggregate net sales for December 2017 quarter.
Heckyl Company Growth Indicator has correctly predicted the trend for Sensex companies’ aggregate net sales for the past 6 out of 7 quarters (Chart 1).
Chart 1

Read the rest of this entry »

NMDC news sentiment jumps to 1-year high on extremely positive media coverage

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News sentiment for the state-run mineral producer NMDC soared to the highest level in the past 12-months as the positive media coverage gained momentum during December 2017. At 51, Heckyl sentiment score 50-day moving average (DMA) was at the highest in the past 1-year on Jan. 2, 2018.

At the same time, positive press coverage was also reflected in the share price (Image 1). Since November 30, NMDC has appreciated nearly 17% as buoyant news sentiment fueled optimism about the future prospects.

NMDC_Share_Sentiment
[Image 1: NMDC share price and news sentiment chart]

Production, ratings, contracts, product pricing, and expansion related news items dominated NMDC’s media coverage in the past 1-month (Image 2). Moreover, news coverage under these categories was extremely positive during this period.

NMDC_Top Topics
[Image 2: Top 5 News Topics for NMDC]

Read the rest of this entry »

Cadila Healthcare leads ANDA approvals among Indian drug makers

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Cadila Healthcare secured the highest number of ANDA (abbreviated new drug application) approvals among Indian pharmaceutical companies during the past nine month period.

The country’s fourth-largest drugmaker by market cap has received 70 ANDA approvals in the current financial year (Image 1). Out the total, 21 ANDA approvals were received by the company during the previous quarter. 

The drug makers are required to obtain ANDA approval from the FDA to manufacture and market the low-cost generic alternative to the brand-name drug in the US market.

Cadila Healthcase - ANDA
[Image 1: FiND Compare screen highlights ANDA approvals for top 5 Indian drugmakers]
Read the rest of this entry »

Oil & gas companies Q4 news flow most positive in past 8-quarters

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Total SA leads positive news coverage among top 10 oil & gas companies in 2017

Global oil & gas companies witnessed a significant improvement in underlying news sentiment for December 2017 quarter. Crude oil prices are at its highest level in past 8-quarters (Image 1), which has led to improvement in prospects of earnings, production and growth-oriented activities for the oil & gas companies. As a result, news coverage on top 100 global oil & gas companies during Q4 was most positive in the past 8-quarters.

OIL PRICE TREND
[Image 1: Crude Oil Price Trend]

FiND, an alternative data platform developed by Heckyl has accurately captured movement in news sentiment for the oil & gas sector. For the past 8-quarters, our positive to negative news ratio for top 100 oil & gas companies showed near perfect positive correlation (0.95) with Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas index (Image 2).

Dow Jones Global Oil &amp; Gas - Positive to Negative News Ratio
[Image 2: Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas v/s Heckyl Positive to Negative News Ratio]

 (The ratio value higher than 1 indicates mostly positive news sentiment. On the other hand, the ratio value lower than 1 signals broadly negative news sentiment.) Read the rest of this entry »

Tesla dominates media coverage among major automakers in 2017

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Product launch, alternative energy top news topics for global automakers 

Surge in news volume highlighting alternative energy signals the automotive industry is moving towards electric vehicles at top speed

Tesla Inc. topped the media coverage among 20 major global automakers in 2017 followed by Volkswagen, Ford Motor, and Toyota (Image 1). Tesla generated a lot of media frenzy around its market launch of Model 3 and unveiling of Roadster and Tesla Semi during this year.
Top 20 - Share of Voice
[Image 1]

FiND, an alternative data platform showed a surge in news flow highlighting alternative energy for all major automakers globally (Image 2). Automotive product launches generate lots of media coverage and thus it topping the list is understandable.
Category Wise News Flow
[Image 2]
Read the rest of this entry »

GSK attracts negative rating news coverage as analysts turn bearish on stock

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Analysts’ bearish stance on GSK weighs on stock price heavily

Media coverage for GlaxoSmithKline Plc, one of the world’s largest drug makers was dominated by Stock Rating related news items in the past 90-days. FiND, an alternative data platform showed the underlying news sentiment for analyst rating coverage on GSK was mostly negative during this period (Image 1).

FiND offers high-end Media analytics by tracking mainstream news and social media in real-time and analyzing movement in underlying sentiment around it for all listed and unlisted companies across the globe.

GSK RATINGS COVERAGE - Part 1
Image 1: GSK – Top Topics and Ratings News Sentiment

Read the rest of this entry »

Passenger load factor for these 4 airlines consistently stay above 2016 levels

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Passenger load factor is one of the key operating metrics for airlines. It measures how much of an airline’s passenger carrying capacity is used. Aviation is a capital-intensive sector and it is important for airlines to maintain higher load factor as it can lead to improvement in profitability.

FiND, an alternative data platform identified 12 airlines witnessing consistent improvement in monthly passenger load factor in 2017 when compared with 2016. We have highlighted passenger load factor trend for 4 such airlines below:

Deutsche Lufthansa

Read the rest of this entry »

Auto sales growth returning in Brazil and Russia… green shoots of recovery?

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2017 is turning out to be a year of growth for passenger vehicle (PV) markets in Brazil and Russia, marking a shift in direction for the first time in last 5-years. Brazil and Russia, two commodity-driven economies witnessed a strong pick up in PV sales volume over the past 6-months.

The uptrend in commodity cycle helped Russia and Brazil to bounce back from recession in 2017. With the revival in economic activities, PV manufactures in these two countries logged double-digit growth in monthly sales volume (Image 1).

Russia - Brazil Monthly Sales Growth

Read the rest of this entry »

Electric Vehicles: Arriving faster than anticipated

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Come winter and the noise about air pollution increases multi-fold in the news and social media coverage. And so increases the calls for curbing pollution from vehicular emissions. Thankfully, we are closer to increase in the proportion of alternate energy vehicles in our fleet now than we were a couple of years back. In this study, we have highlighted how countries are placed in terms of electric vehicles sales growth and penetration.

China continues to be the engine behind electric vehicle growth in the world, thanks to policy push from the Chinese government. In the first 9 months of 2017, the sale of electric vehicles (pure and hybrid both) increased by 46% (Image 1). China contributed 22% out of the 46% growth followed by Europe (11%), USA (6%) and rest of the world contributing 7%.

 

3
Image 1: Growth contribution by countries in EV sales

 

 

Read the rest of this entry »

Is your company getting adequate attention from international media?

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Social Media image

In today’s digital world, no company can afford to ignore their coverage on mainstream and social media. It is extremely important for companies to track media coverage and analyse sentiment around it regularly for preventing a PR crisis. 

Heckyl has introduced Media Monitoring Tool, which offers unique insights through deep-dive analytics on the company’s news and social media coverage.

To demonstrate Heckyl’s capabilities and depth of news coverage, we conducted a study on international media coverage for the Nifty companies during the past 30-days.

Our analysis showed that Tata Motors, Infosys, and Bharti Airtel were the top 3 companies attracting maximum news coverage from international media houses.

In our view, keeping track of international media coverage and analysis of underlying tone of news stories is essential for the companies with global presence.

In this blog post, we highlight infographics which shows region-wise news coverage, the tone of global media coverage and top news publishers for these 3 companies.

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Heckyl Seasonality screen unlocks the secrets of commodity trading

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Seasonality Social Media

Heckyl Seasonality screen helps you to identify unique opportunities for trading in commodities by bringing out the best insights from the historical patterns.

We studied the directional likeness of 10 completed months of 2017 with the average monthly price trends of the past 5-years to derive at an accuracy score. The accuracy is calculated as

Accuracy

Here we are sharing 4 success stories for this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Reliance Jio’s Media Share of Voice Falls in Oct’17

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Reliance Jio, India’s fourth largest telecom company, witnessed a drop in the share of voice for both mainstream and social media in October 2017 when compared with previous month. 

The share of voice for mainstream media stood at 15.6% in October, down from 22.6% in the previous month. At the same time, the share of voice for social media (Twitter) dropped to 14.1% in October from 21.1% in the last month (Image 1).

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Sanofi’s 16% of sales is at risk

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French drug-maker Sanofi faces risk to its 16% of revenues after its top-selling drug Lantus came under threat from the generic manufacturers. The fear of losing revenue from Lantus has forced Sanofi to defend its intellectual property rights. Recent news flow showed that the maker of Lantus drug filed several patent infringement suits against the generic manufacturers.

Lantus, an “Insulin glargine” (a long-acting basal insulin analogue), accounted for 16.4% of Sanofi’s net sales in 2016. Lantus consists of microcrystals, which slowly releases insulin over a period of 24 hours with a peak-less profile. This drug helps in controlling the blood sugar of diabetic people.

Lantus is one of the major drugs in the anti-diabetic segment. In 2015, Lantus accounted for ~17% of the global sales for anti-diabetic products.

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Heckyl Sentiment Index for Nifty in bullish territory

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Heckyl Sentiment Index for Nifty regained strength and moved back into bullish territory, indicating the recent rally in the 50-share index may continue in the near term. The Modi government’s Rs 9-trillion plan to boost economy fueled optimism in the market and has sent the broad based Nifty to a record high level during the past week.

Heckyl has developed a Sentiment Index to track the sentiment around the market based on news development. This index analyses the potential impact of the sentiment on the value of Nifty index. This is done through an analysis of the news flow on the Nifty companies in real-time.

Our back-testing has indicated a strong positive correlation (0.80+), implying that the Heckyl Sentiment Index is an alternative proxy for the 50-share index.

Sentiment Index for Nifty regained strength  (Image 1) after the Modi government decided infuse Rs 2.1-trillion as capital in the ailing public sector banks. Moreover, the government’s plan to spend whopping Rs 7-trillion on the road projects also lifted the sentiments.

During the last week, the Nifty moved up 1.70 percent, while the 30-share Sensex surged 2.40 percent.

Nifty Sentiment Index
[Image 1: Heckyl Sentiment Index versus NSE Nifty Index]

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Bharti Airtel Tops Media Share of Voice; News Sentiment at 1-Year High

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Bharti Airtel dominated media coverage among the leading telecom companies in the past 30-days, while news sentiment soared to the highest level in the past 12-months.

Media share of voice for the India’s largest telecom operator stood at 43%, followed by Reliance Communications (26.4%) and Vodafone India (22%) [Image 1].

Bharti Airtel - Share of Voice
[Image 1: Media Share of Voice]

Bharti Airtel and Vodafone India have recorded a surge in sentiment score over the past 2-months helped by positive media coverage. On the other hand, news sentiment for Reliance Communications remained in negative territory during the same period [Image 2].

Bharti Sentiment
[Image 2: Sentiment Score Chart]

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Drug patent expirations: $200 bn in sales up for grabs in the next 5-years

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Patents on drugs worth over USD 200 billion are going to expire in the next 5-years, according to a study conducted by Heckyl. More than 330 drugs will lose patents issued by the US Patent and Trademark Office during CY2018-2022. These drugs constitute ~38.5% of the total number of patented drugs in the US.

A slew of impending patent expirations in the US offers a huge opportunity for generic drug manufacturers. The key beneficiaries of upcoming patent expiries are Mylan, Teva, Celgene, Wockhardt, Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Lupin, Aurobindo, Natco and Cadila.

 

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Surge in bad loans a dark reminder of lax credit standards, inadequate monitoring

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The bad loans of Indian banks has touched a record high of Rs 9.5 trillion at the end of June 2017. The banks witnessed an increase of 4.5% in bad loans from January to June 2017, according to RBI data. The recent surge in bad loans suggests that there is no end to the NPA crisis anytime soon.

Heckyl believes there is a lot more that can be done in the credit risk space in the financial institutions. It is no secret anymore that be it the banks or the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), the wrath of the non-performing assets has spared none. Although, these financial institutions have their existing risk models in place, the important question remains, that is, are they able to comprehensively highlight the impending risk ahead of time?

Heckyl has developed innovative Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) that collects, organizes and performs deep-dive analytics on structured and unstructured data sets to offer 360-degree view on lender’s loan portfolio. Our EWS application identifies the pre-default behavior of corporate borrowers to help lenders pick up warning signals ahead of time.

Heckyl EWS spots several red-flags on Sintex IndustriesSintex Redflags Read the rest of this entry »

Did you miss the recent rally in Sembcorp Marine?

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Heckyl sentiment based strategy indicated a shift in sentiment for Sembcorp Marine from bearish to bullish at the beginning of September 2017. Since then, sentiment for the Singapore based global marine and offshore engineering company remained in bullish territory.
Our sentiment score analyses the potential impact of news on the stock prices in real-time. By using our sentiment score, we have prepared strategy that indicates bullish/bearish signals based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment value.
In October, Sembcorp Marine witnessed a spike in bullish sentiment. As a result, the stock had delivered a return of over 17% during this bullish phase (See Image 1 below).
Sembcorp
[Image 1: Sembcorp Marine – Share Price and Sentiment Score]
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Heckyl Sentiment Index to help fund managers decipher news sentiment around portfolio

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Equity mutual funds have recorded nearly 4-fold growth in net inflows in the past six months. Net inflows in equity-oriented funds stood at a staggering Rs 76,065 crore for the first half of the financial year 2017, up from Rs 19,829 crore in the same period last year. At the same time, equity funds’ asset under management (AUM) grew 22% over the past six months primarily due to a surge in net inflows.

Heckyl has developed India’s first Sentiment Index for Mutual Funds. Our proprietary Sentiment Index offers a broad reading of collective sentiment through real-time analysis of news flow on the stocks within fund portfolio.

News, which drives the day-to-day movement in the stock prices, can help to predict fund performance. A positive news flow on the stocks within the portfolio could possibly indicate better returns ahead and vice-versa.

Heckyl Sentiment Index can help fund managers to decipher underlying sentiment around fund portfolio. Our Sentiment Index indicates bullish/bearish signals for equity funds based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment index value. 

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Delta Q3 passenger traffic rises 3%, load factor improves 150 bps despite Hurricane Irma

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Delta Air Lines rallied on Tuesday after the company issued better-than-expected guidance for the third quarter passenger unit revenue. Despite fall in passenger traffic in September 2017, Delta management expects passenger unit revenue to increase by 2% for the quarter ended September 2017.

In September, operations of few US-based airlines including Delta were affected by the Hurricane Irma. Bad weather conditions forced Delta to cancel 22,000 flights in the last month. As a result, the carrier reported a drop of 2.3% (on a year-on-year basis) in the number of passengers carried during September.

Passenger Traffic_Monthly

Heckyl’s alternative data platform FiND did not show any major impact of Hurricane Irma on Delta’s operational performance for the quarter ended September 2017. Our analysis showed a growth of 3% (on a y-o-y basis) in the number of passengers carried by Delta during the quarter ended September 2017.

Passenger Traffic_Qtr Read the rest of this entry »

News sentiment for Bajaj Finance jumps to 1-month high

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Bajaj Finance received favourable media coverage in September 2017. Bajaj Finserv subsidiary witnessed a surge in news and tweets volume in the last month. At the same time, the company recorded a jump in news sentiment – 30 day average to 1-month high towards the end of September. Moreover, news sentiment – 30 day average for Bajaj Finance was highest among its peers. 

Bajaj Finance_1 Read the rest of this entry »

Mildly bearish Sentiment Index indicates sideways trade for STI: Heckyl

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Heckyl has developed a Sentiment Index that analyses the potential impact of the sentiment on the value of Straits Times Index (STI) in real-time.

The Sentiment Index indicates bullish/bearish signals based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment index value. This is done through an analysis of the news flow on the 30-largest public listed companies in real-time.

Our back-testing has indicated a strong positive correlation (0.75+), implying that the Heckyl Sentiment index is an alternative proxy for the Straits Times index.

Currently, Heckyl Sentiment Index for Straits Times index is in mildly bearish territory, indicating the sideways trade may continue.

Strait Times Sentiment Index Read the rest of this entry »

Tata Motors tops media share of voice in the past 30-days

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Tata Motors dominated media coverage among the leading auto makers in the past 30-days. At 56.4%, Tata Motors’ media share of voice was the highest when compared with its peers.

1 Read the rest of this entry »

55,000+ companies ventured into services sector: Could these new entrants be the prospective targets for banks?

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Heckyl Business Intelligence application identifies companies, who at some point in time, may require funds to finance their various business operations. Our BI engine identified 55,082 private limited companies that have ventured into the services business between Aug. 1, 2016 and Jul. 31, 2017. These companies were formed with an aggregate paid up capital of Rs 2,944 crores.

In our view, building early relationships with young companies could be relatively easier for banks than building new-relationships with established companies. Newly incorporated companies could be the potential targets for banks to offer various products such as working capital, long-term loans, payrolls, bill discounting etc. The banks can grow their business by tapping these young companies when they are in need of funding. Read the rest of this entry »

Mexico earthquake: Are you well prepared to hedge/ gain from disruptions in supply?

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The 7.1 magnitude earthquake that hit Mexico on September 19 has left auto OEMs, suppliers and dealers worried on possible production and sales losses, if any. Fortunately, Central Mexico, the worst affected area, has fewer manufacturing plants compared to other parts of the country. 

But as a participant in the auto supply chain, are you well prepared to hedge or possibly gain out of the situations like these?

FiND, a brand new Alternative Data platform, can not only alert you about the OEMs and plants which are worse impacted by the supply disruptions but also can provide information about the models and parts produced in these plants.

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OMCs attract positive media coverage in Aug’17; IOCL’s news sentiment hits 5-year high

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Media coverage was overwhelmingly positive for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) during August 2017. Corporate growth, expansion and M&A related news flow dominated the media coverage for OMCs in the past month.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL), the country’s largest OMC, witnessed a marked improvement in positive media coverage during August 2017.

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How Maruti Suzuki generated industry beating margins with volume cars?

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Journey from stagnant unit sales and average profit margins
Maruti Suzuki recorded stagnant unit sales during FY13 (up 3.3% y-o-y) and FY14 (down 1.4% y-o-y). EBITDA margin stood in the range of 8% to 11% during FY13 and FY14.

… to industry beating growth rates
India’s top car manufacturer witnessed a substantial improvement in both unit sales growth and margins during the past 3-years. Annual unit sales growth was in the range of 9-12% during FY15 to FY17. At the same time, EBITDA margin has also improved from 10.9% in FY14 to 15.2% in FY17.

Maruti Suzuki’s progress over the past 10-quarters

Maruti_Progress on Timeline with Find logo Read the rest of this entry »