Drug patent expirations: $200 bn in sales up for grabs in the next 5-years

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Patents on drugs worth over USD 200 billion are going to expire in the next 5-years, according to a study conducted by Heckyl. More than 330 drugs will lose patents issued by the US Patent and Trademark Office during CY2018-2022. These drugs constitute ~38.5% of the total number of patented drugs in the US.

A slew of impending patent expirations in the US offers a huge opportunity for generic drug manufacturers. The key beneficiaries of upcoming patent expiries are Mylan, Teva, Celgene, Wockhardt, Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Lupin, Aurobindo, Natco and Cadila.

 

FiND, an alternative data platform developed by Heckyl, identified USD 41.2 billion worth of monetization opportunity for Mylan over the next 5-years (based on our limited analysis of Para IV ANDA filings). We defined monetization opportunity as the sum of the annual branded drugs’ global revenues for the innovator company/companies that are losing patent in the generic company’s financial year.

For example, Mylan has submitted Para IV ANDA filings for the drugs that will lose patents in 2019. These drugs have generated annual sales of USD 14.3 billion for the innovator company/companies in FY16. We have considered this amount (USD 14.3 billion) as monetization opportunity for Mylan in FY19.

Mylan NV
[Image 1: Mylan – Monetization opportunity] 

On the other hand, Gilead Sciences Inc, Novartis AG and Merck & Co Inc are top 3 patented drug makers whose sales is at risk due to upcoming patent expiries. We have highlighted 10 pharma companies whose sales is at risk in below table (Image 2).

Company - Sales at Risk - Expiry Ratio
[Image 1: Top 10 Pharma companies whose sales is at risk]

FiND collects, organizes and performs deep-dive analytics on structured and unstructured data sets to provide unique insights into companies, industries and countries. Some of the key data sets that we offer for Pharmaceutical sector are litigation, new drug opportunity, detailed drug profile and clinical trial data from multiple locations.

To know more about FiND, email us at find@heckyl.com

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