Business

Drug patent expirations: $200 bn in sales up for grabs in the next 5-years

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Patents on drugs worth over USD 200 billion are going to expire in the next 5-years, according to a study conducted by Heckyl. More than 330 drugs will lose patents issued by the US Patent and Trademark Office during CY2018-2022. These drugs constitute ~38.5% of the total number of patented drugs in the US.

A slew of impending patent expirations in the US offers a huge opportunity for generic drug manufacturers. The key beneficiaries of upcoming patent expiries are Mylan, Teva, Celgene, Wockhardt, Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Lupin, Aurobindo, Natco and Cadila.

 

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Surge in bad loans a dark reminder of lax credit standards, inadequate monitoring

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The bad loans of Indian banks has touched a record high of Rs 9.5 trillion at the end of June 2017. The banks witnessed an increase of 4.5% in bad loans from January to June 2017, according to RBI data. The recent surge in bad loans suggests that there is no end to the NPA crisis anytime soon.

Heckyl believes there is a lot more that can be done in the credit risk space in the financial institutions. It is no secret anymore that be it the banks or the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), the wrath of the non-performing assets has spared none. Although, these financial institutions have their existing risk models in place, the important question remains, that is, are they able to comprehensively highlight the impending risk ahead of time?

Heckyl has developed innovative Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) that collects, organizes and performs deep-dive analytics on structured and unstructured data sets to offer 360-degree view on lender’s loan portfolio. Our EWS application identifies the pre-default behavior of corporate borrowers to help lenders pick up warning signals ahead of time.

Heckyl EWS spots several red-flags on Sintex IndustriesSintex Redflags Read the rest of this entry »

Did you miss the recent rally in Sembcorp Marine?

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Heckyl sentiment based strategy indicated a shift in sentiment for Sembcorp Marine from bearish to bullish at the beginning of September 2017. Since then, sentiment for the Singapore based global marine and offshore engineering company remained in bullish territory.
Our sentiment score analyses the potential impact of news on the stock prices in real-time. By using our sentiment score, we have prepared strategy that indicates bullish/bearish signals based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment value.
In October, Sembcorp Marine witnessed a spike in bullish sentiment. As a result, the stock had delivered a return of over 17% during this bullish phase (See Image 1 below).
Sembcorp
[Image 1: Sembcorp Marine – Share Price and Sentiment Score]
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Heckyl Sentiment Index to help fund managers decipher news sentiment around portfolio

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Equity mutual funds have recorded nearly 4-fold growth in net inflows in the past six months. Net inflows in equity-oriented funds stood at a staggering Rs 76,065 crore for the first half of the financial year 2017, up from Rs 19,829 crore in the same period last year. At the same time, equity funds’ asset under management (AUM) grew 22% over the past six months primarily due to a surge in net inflows.

Heckyl has developed India’s first Sentiment Index for Mutual Funds. Our proprietary Sentiment Index offers a broad reading of collective sentiment through real-time analysis of news flow on the stocks within fund portfolio.

News, which drives the day-to-day movement in the stock prices, can help to predict fund performance. A positive news flow on the stocks within the portfolio could possibly indicate better returns ahead and vice-versa.

Heckyl Sentiment Index can help fund managers to decipher underlying sentiment around fund portfolio. Our Sentiment Index indicates bullish/bearish signals for equity funds based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment index value. 

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Delta Q3 passenger traffic rises 3%, load factor improves 150 bps despite Hurricane Irma

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Delta Air Lines rallied on Tuesday after the company issued better-than-expected guidance for the third quarter passenger unit revenue. Despite fall in passenger traffic in September 2017, Delta management expects passenger unit revenue to increase by 2% for the quarter ended September 2017.

In September, operations of few US-based airlines including Delta were affected by the Hurricane Irma. Bad weather conditions forced Delta to cancel 22,000 flights in the last month. As a result, the carrier reported a drop of 2.3% (on a year-on-year basis) in the number of passengers carried during September.

Passenger Traffic_Monthly

Heckyl’s alternative data platform FiND did not show any major impact of Hurricane Irma on Delta’s operational performance for the quarter ended September 2017. Our analysis showed a growth of 3% (on a y-o-y basis) in the number of passengers carried by Delta during the quarter ended September 2017.

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News sentiment for Bajaj Finance jumps to 1-month high

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Bajaj Finance received favourable media coverage in September 2017. Bajaj Finserv subsidiary witnessed a surge in news and tweets volume in the last month. At the same time, the company recorded a jump in news sentiment – 30 day average to 1-month high towards the end of September. Moreover, news sentiment – 30 day average for Bajaj Finance was highest among its peers. 

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Mildly bearish Sentiment Index indicates sideways trade for STI: Heckyl

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Heckyl has developed a Sentiment Index that analyses the potential impact of the sentiment on the value of Straits Times Index (STI) in real-time.

The Sentiment Index indicates bullish/bearish signals based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment index value. This is done through an analysis of the news flow on the 30-largest public listed companies in real-time.

Our back-testing has indicated a strong positive correlation (0.75+), implying that the Heckyl Sentiment index is an alternative proxy for the Straits Times index.

Currently, Heckyl Sentiment Index for Straits Times index is in mildly bearish territory, indicating the sideways trade may continue.

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