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Association of Person, named in Criminal case, with Multiple Companies A Red-flag

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Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) is the first of its kind innovative application that provides early warning signals through analysis of traditional and alternative datasets for identifying distress sectors and companies ahead of time.

RAS is also a singular repository to carry out deeper levels of due diligence for compliance and related party risk assessment. Our application allows screening of KMPs, Directors, Companies, and Institutions by performing checks against:

  1. Litigation
  2. Regulatory Complaints
  3. Blacklists/ Defaulter List
  4. Sanctions by Global Authorities
  5. Politically Exposed People
  6. Adverse Media

Recently the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has filed a criminal case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) against cardiologist Dr Naresh Trehan and others in connection with allotment of land for the Medanta Hospital in Gurgaon.

RAS has captured the adverse media coverage around Dr Trehan, who is director on the board of Global Health Patliputra Pvt Ltd.

Image 1: News Screen

A further deep-dive into RAS’s related parties dataset has revealed that Dr Trehan is/ was director on the boards of 27 companies. Our related parties screen captures both the active and inactive relationship of directors with the companies.

The companies on which Dr Trehan is/ was associated with are Medanta Holdings Pvt Ltd, Escorts Heart and Super Speciality Ltd, Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd, Punj Lloyd Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, Fresenius Kabi Oncology Ltd, Shama Estates Pvt Ltd and 20 other companies (highlighted in the below screen).

Image 2: Related Parties Screen

In our view, association of a person, who was named in a criminal case, with multiple companies is a potential red-flag for the lenders.

News Sentiment for 50+ Companies from BSE 500 Hits 2-Year Low

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Unstructured data sets such as News is the first credible source of information that can offer insights into both the present and future prospects of the company. The application of news data in the risk assessment of corporate borrowers helps in capturing important events and red-flags which can have impact on the company’s operations at a later date.

In our view, a significant drop in the company’s news sentiment can be a potential red-flag and at the same time, an early warning signal of future under-performance.
  
Our analysis of news data has shown a steep decline in sentiment score for 50+ companies from BSE 500 Index to a 2-year low. Here, we present the heat-map for top 20 companies witnessing significant drop in news sentiment score.

Heatmap Read the rest of this entry »

Heckyl RAS Spots Multiple Red-Flags on Alternative Data Ahead of Deterioration in Financials

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The deterioration in financials of the company did not happen overnight. There are one or more events happening internally and/ or externally in a span of time that could hamper the company’s operations. Moreover, the impact of events is known only at the later stage after the announcement of financial results.

Tracking multiple events involving the large number of corporate borrowers in portfolio is a daunting task. In our view, the analysis of Alternative Datasets such as PF, Ownership, Directors, News Sentiment, Credit Rating, GST, Charges etc. can offer an Early Warning Signal to spot deterioration in financials ahead of time.

Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) offers 360-Degree view on Risk Assessment of Portfolio Companies by capturing and analyzing 1. Delay in Employees’ Provident Fund (PF) contribution; 2. Adverse Media and News Sentiment; 3. Changes in the Promoter Ownership or Pledging; 4. Director Resignations; 5. Delay in GST filing; 6. Credit Rating; and 7. Creation of New Charge on Assets in addition to Financial Data.

Here, we highlight the top 10 companies which have witnessed multiple red-flags ahead of decline in Financial Score.

Timeline_Concise
RAS is the first of its kind innovative application that provides early warning signals through analysis of traditional and alternative datasets for identifying distress sectors and companies ahead of time.

To know more about Heckyl RAS, email us  at info@heckyl.com.

Contraction in India April Manufacturing PMI Steepest among Top 10 Economies

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The manufacturing sector accounts for just one fifth of the global economy and its share is shrinking further in developed countries. Yet, the investing community spends much time on assessing the health of the sector. The manufacturing sector, being at the forefront of economic activity, provides the direction in which the overall economy will go. This explains why the manufacturing sector grabs the attention of the investor community.

The business surveys on the manufacturing sector have often helped in providing first reliable signals of turning points in the economy. One such key indicator is the manufacturing PMI which shows what the participating purchasing managers think about future capex, job creation and overall demand of goods.

A steep contraction in the latest manufacturing PMI numbers for April wasn’t surprising given the prevalent worldwide lockdown to tackle COVID-19 pandemic. However, a contraction of 20-30% versus a contraction of 50% should be looked upon separately.

While among the major economies, the manufacturing PMI numbers have contracted for all. However, the shrinkage of almost 50% in India’s April manufacturing PMI was steepest among the top 10 economies. This shows the damage caused by the lockdown has far deeper consequences on the Indian economy than its developed counterparts.

PMI
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PF data acts as a leading indicator for identifying distressed companies: Heckyl study

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Companies from consumer services, industrials and financial sectors lead drop in PF score in FY20

Publicly available data from Employees’ Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) is one of the datasets that can be very useful to gain unique insights in the assessment of credit risk. In our view, a significant delay in monthly Provident Fund (PF) payment is a potential red-flag as the delay could be due to liquidity crunch faced by the company. Moreover, a substantial drop in the number of employees or amount paid for PF is also a potential red-flag as it signals layoffs or job cuts to reduce the company’s operational cost.

Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) has several business rules to identify such red-flags from PF data. Based on the rule output of the PF module for the company, Heckyl system computes the PF score.

Heckyl study on PF data for 1,000 companies has shown a drop in the PF score for 540+ companies during the financial year 2020. The companies from consumer services, industrials, financial institutions, commercial services and chemical sectors have led the drop in the PF score for the FY20.

Sector-wise PF Score

Moreover, 310+ companies, which have witnessed a fall in the PF score, have subsequently seen declined in the scores for other modules of RAS such as Financial, Charges, Credit Rating, Directors, Ownership, and GST. Read the rest of this entry »