Sanofi’s 16% of sales is at risk

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French drug-maker Sanofi faces risk to its 16% of revenues after its top-selling drug Lantus came under threat from the generic manufacturers. The fear of losing revenue from Lantus has forced Sanofi to defend its intellectual property rights. Recent news flow showed that the maker of Lantus drug filed several patent infringement suits against the generic manufacturers.

Lantus, an “Insulin glargine” (a long-acting basal insulin analogue), accounted for 16.4% of Sanofi’s net sales in 2016. Lantus consists of microcrystals, which slowly releases insulin over a period of 24 hours with a peak-less profile. This drug helps in controlling the blood sugar of diabetic people.

Lantus is one of the major drugs in the anti-diabetic segment. In 2015, Lantus accounted for ~17% of the global sales for anti-diabetic products.

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Heckyl Sentiment Index for Nifty in bullish territory

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Heckyl Sentiment Index for Nifty regained strength and moved back into bullish territory, indicating the recent rally in the 50-share index may continue in the near term. The Modi government’s Rs 9-trillion plan to boost economy fueled optimism in the market and has sent the broad based Nifty to a record high level during the past week.

Heckyl has developed a Sentiment Index to track the sentiment around the market based on news development. This index analyses the potential impact of the sentiment on the value of Nifty index. This is done through an analysis of the news flow on the Nifty companies in real-time.

Our back-testing has indicated a strong positive correlation (0.80+), implying that the Heckyl Sentiment Index is an alternative proxy for the 50-share index.

Sentiment Index for Nifty regained strength  (Image 1) after the Modi government decided infuse Rs 2.1-trillion as capital in the ailing public sector banks. Moreover, the government’s plan to spend whopping Rs 7-trillion on the road projects also lifted the sentiments.

During the last week, the Nifty moved up 1.70 percent, while the 30-share Sensex surged 2.40 percent.

Nifty Sentiment Index
[Image 1: Heckyl Sentiment Index versus NSE Nifty Index]

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Bharti Airtel Tops Media Share of Voice; News Sentiment at 1-Year High

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Bharti Airtel dominated media coverage among the leading telecom companies in the past 30-days, while news sentiment soared to the highest level in the past 12-months.

Media share of voice for the India’s largest telecom operator stood at 43%, followed by Reliance Communications (26.4%) and Vodafone India (22%) [Image 1].

Bharti Airtel - Share of Voice
[Image 1: Media Share of Voice]

Bharti Airtel and Vodafone India have recorded a surge in sentiment score over the past 2-months helped by positive media coverage. On the other hand, news sentiment for Reliance Communications remained in negative territory during the same period [Image 2].

Bharti Sentiment
[Image 2: Sentiment Score Chart]

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Drug patent expirations: $200 bn in sales up for grabs in the next 5-years

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Patents on drugs worth over USD 200 billion are going to expire in the next 5-years, according to a study conducted by Heckyl. More than 330 drugs will lose patents issued by the US Patent and Trademark Office during CY2018-2022. These drugs constitute ~38.5% of the total number of patented drugs in the US.

A slew of impending patent expirations in the US offers a huge opportunity for generic drug manufacturers. The key beneficiaries of upcoming patent expiries are Mylan, Teva, Celgene, Wockhardt, Dr Reddy’s, Cipla, Lupin, Aurobindo, Natco and Cadila.

 

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Surge in bad loans a dark reminder of lax credit standards, inadequate monitoring

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The bad loans of Indian banks has touched a record high of Rs 9.5 trillion at the end of June 2017. The banks witnessed an increase of 4.5% in bad loans from January to June 2017, according to RBI data. The recent surge in bad loans suggests that there is no end to the NPA crisis anytime soon.

Heckyl believes there is a lot more that can be done in the credit risk space in the financial institutions. It is no secret anymore that be it the banks or the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), the wrath of the non-performing assets has spared none. Although, these financial institutions have their existing risk models in place, the important question remains, that is, are they able to comprehensively highlight the impending risk ahead of time?

Heckyl has developed innovative Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) that collects, organizes and performs deep-dive analytics on structured and unstructured data sets to offer 360-degree view on lender’s loan portfolio. Our EWS application identifies the pre-default behavior of corporate borrowers to help lenders pick up warning signals ahead of time.

Heckyl EWS spots several red-flags on Sintex IndustriesSintex Redflags Read the rest of this entry »

Did you miss the recent rally in Sembcorp Marine?

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Heckyl sentiment based strategy indicated a shift in sentiment for Sembcorp Marine from bearish to bullish at the beginning of September 2017. Since then, sentiment for the Singapore based global marine and offshore engineering company remained in bullish territory.
Our sentiment score analyses the potential impact of news on the stock prices in real-time. By using our sentiment score, we have prepared strategy that indicates bullish/bearish signals based on the crossover of fast and slow moving averages of the daily sentiment value.
In October, Sembcorp Marine witnessed a spike in bullish sentiment. As a result, the stock had delivered a return of over 17% during this bullish phase (See Image 1 below).
Sembcorp
[Image 1: Sembcorp Marine – Share Price and Sentiment Score]
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