It is quiet intuitive that different seasons of a year impact the demand and availability of agricultural commodities thereby influencing the prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that seasonality plays a big factor in pricing of non-agricultural commodities as well.
Here, we present a case for Natural Gas. Prices of MCX Natural Gas gained in April every year from 2012 to 2016. The year of 2017 was no exception. MCX Natural Gas posted a gain of over 3% in April this year.
[Heckyl’s Seasonality Screen]
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Calendar spread trading in commodity futures market has traditionally been executed by professional traders. However, anyone can carry out such trading strategy by understanding how to implement it in real market conditions.
Calendar spread is a futures spread between two months (For e.g. November 2016 and February 2017) in the same market (For e.g. MCX Silver Mini). One can calculate spread by subtracting near month’s contract price from next month’s contract price. Read the rest of this entry »
Gold, one of the top performing assets so far in 2016, has attracted a lot of attention. Turmoil in the equity markets and oil price crash have not only made investors jittery, but also forced many of them to invest in safe haven assets such as gold. As a result, billions of dollars of new money poured into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In fact, fund inflows in the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold alone crossed more than $7 billion since December 2015, while gold holdings of ETFs have jumped to their highest level in 27-months. Read the rest of this entry »