The analysis of Altman Z-score for 290 companies from BSE 500 index in Heckyl Risk Analytics System (RAS) revealed that Automobiles, Utilities and Industrials sectors have led the volume of distressed companies in the financial year 2020.
The Altman Z-score is the output of a credit-strength test that gauges the company’s likelihood of bankruptcy. This score measures the performance of the company on profitability, leverage, liquidity, solvency, and activity to predict whether the organization has a high probability of becoming bankrupt.
Based on the value of Altman Z-score, the company cab be classified into three zones. A Z-score above 2.99 suggests that a company is in the safe zone. A Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 is in the grey zone which suggests there is a good chance of the company going bankrupt. Meanwhile, a Z-score below 1.80 is in the distress zone which indicates a high probability of distress.
Here, we present some of the highlights of Altman Z-score analysis for 290 companies from BSE 500 index which have declared the annual results for the financial year 2020:
#1. Manappuram Finance, Shoppers Stop and Bombay Dyeing fall into Distressed category
#2. Tejas Networks, HEG and AllCargo Logistics slip into Grey zone
#3. Distressed Cholamandalam Investment, Reliance Capital and Can Fin Homes register further Deterioration
Heckyl RAS does all the heavy-lifting to save the time spent by the risk teams at the banks on the collection of various datasets and complex number crunching and thereby helping them to spend quality time on the ready to use output of business rules, financial modules and risk scores.
Heckyl RAS is the first of its kind innovative application that offers a 360-degree view on the portfolio of companies and individuals through analysis of the traditional and alternative datasets.
To know more about Heckyl RAS, email us at email@example.com.
77% of companies with “below industry average news sentiment” witnessed a deterioration in financials
FiND Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) captures company related red-flags through analysis of millions of data points and news. Unstructured data sets such as “news” are an important piece of information that can be consumed in the risk assessment of corporate borrowers.
Our hypothesis is that the news sentiment acts as a lead indicator to the deterioration in the company’s financial performance. To test this hypothesis, we back-tested news data of 2,250+ companies for the year 2016 on the following business rule:
Company’s news sentiment average stays below the industry average for all 4-quarters in CY16
We identified 924 such companies. Then, we checked if there is any deterioration in the quarterly financial performance (measured by the score of financial business rules) for these companies in the next 4-quarters (CY17).
For 77% of companies (714/924), we found that A. The number of red flags on quarterly financials outpaced the number of green flags in CY17 and B. The net score of red flags was lower than minus 10 for all 4-quarters in CY17.
We have highlighted 3 such companies whose news sentiment remained below the industry average for all 4-quarters in CY16.
We have also listed quarterly result charts for these 3 companies which highlight a deterioration in their financial performance in the subsequent quarters.
Publically available data from Employees’ Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) is an important piece of information that can be consumed in risk assessment of corporate borrowers. In our view, deep-dive analytics on EPFO data can offer unique insights into the company’s functioning.
Through analysis of EPFO data, the banks can find out whether the companies in their loan portfolio are depositing employees’ provident fund (PF) on time or not; and whether there is any significant drop in the PF amount deposited by the company. At the same time, lenders can also identify companies which are downsizing the workforce.
FiND Credit Risk Early Warning System (EWS) consists of 25+ business rules that analyze the EPFO data for the companies every month. One of the key business rules is a delay in PF payment for a given month. In our view, a delay in PF payment may imply liquidity crunch for the company and hence it is a red flag for the banks.
Our hypothesis is that red flags related to PF payment can act as a leading indicator to the deterioration in the company’s financial performance. To test this hypothesis, we back-tested our engine on EPFO data for three months (Jan-17, Feb-17, and Mar-17) on the below-mentioned business rule:
Delay in monthly payment of PF by more than 10 days for more than 50 employees
From our EPFO data universe of 1,250+ companies, FiND EWS identified 35 companies who have delayed PF payment for all 3 months.
Then, we checked if there is any deterioration in the financial performance (captured by FiND Financial Risk score) for these companies post-March 2017 quarter.
We found that: 86% of companies (30/35) witnessed a deterioration in Financial Risk score in the subsequent quarters.
We highlight 10 such companies below:
[Image 1: Financial Risk Score for 10 Companies with PF red flags] Read the rest of this entry »