Risk Analytics System

Heckyl Risk Score Negative for 11 Companies from Nifty 50 Index

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Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) has shown that the 11 out 50 Nifty companies have earned negative risk scores. The list of companies having negative risk scores was topped by Zee Entertainment, followed by Vedanta and Mahindra & Mahindra.

On the other hand, the Heckyl risk score has been the strongest for HDFC Bank in Nifty 50 companies. HDFC Bank was followed by HCL Technologies and Bajaj Finserv.

Image 1: Heatmap for Nifty 50

RAS is a useful tool for corporate lenders to get a 360-degree view on the portfolio companies through analysis of traditional and alternative data modules.

Zee Entertainment’s risk score turned negative in September last year. Since then, the risk score for Zee Entertainment has been on the downtrend.

A further deep-dive into the break-up of risk score in RAS has shown that the negative 100 scores for ownership, credit ratings and stock price modules have dragged Zee Entertainment’s overall risk score lower. Moreover, negative scores for directors and provident fund modules also weighed on the risk score.

Image 2: Risk Overview for Zee Entertainment

RAS is the first of its kind innovative application that helps corporate lenders to get a 360-degree view on the portfolio companies through analysis of traditional and alternative data modules.

Association of Person, named in Criminal case, with Multiple Companies A Red-flag

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Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) is the first of its kind innovative application that provides early warning signals through analysis of traditional and alternative datasets for identifying distress sectors and companies ahead of time.

RAS is also a singular repository to carry out deeper levels of due diligence for compliance and related party risk assessment. Our application allows screening of KMPs, Directors, Companies, and Institutions by performing checks against:

  1. Litigation
  2. Regulatory Complaints
  3. Blacklists/ Defaulter List
  4. Sanctions by Global Authorities
  5. Politically Exposed People
  6. Adverse Media

Recently the Enforcement Directorate (ED) has filed a criminal case under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) against cardiologist Dr Naresh Trehan and others in connection with allotment of land for the Medanta Hospital in Gurgaon.

RAS has captured the adverse media coverage around Dr Trehan, who is director on the board of Global Health Patliputra Pvt Ltd.

Image 1: News Screen

A further deep-dive into RAS’s related parties dataset has revealed that Dr Trehan is/ was director on the boards of 27 companies. Our related parties screen captures both the active and inactive relationship of directors with the companies.

The companies on which Dr Trehan is/ was associated with are Medanta Holdings Pvt Ltd, Escorts Heart and Super Speciality Ltd, Jubilant Life Sciences Ltd, Punj Lloyd Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, Fresenius Kabi Oncology Ltd, Shama Estates Pvt Ltd and 20 other companies (highlighted in the below screen).

Image 2: Related Parties Screen

In our view, association of a person, who was named in a criminal case, with multiple companies is a potential red-flag for the lenders.

Contraction in India April Manufacturing PMI Steepest among Top 10 Economies

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The manufacturing sector accounts for just one fifth of the global economy and its share is shrinking further in developed countries. Yet, the investing community spends much time on assessing the health of the sector. The manufacturing sector, being at the forefront of economic activity, provides the direction in which the overall economy will go. This explains why the manufacturing sector grabs the attention of the investor community.

The business surveys on the manufacturing sector have often helped in providing first reliable signals of turning points in the economy. One such key indicator is the manufacturing PMI which shows what the participating purchasing managers think about future capex, job creation and overall demand of goods.

A steep contraction in the latest manufacturing PMI numbers for April wasn’t surprising given the prevalent worldwide lockdown to tackle COVID-19 pandemic. However, a contraction of 20-30% versus a contraction of 50% should be looked upon separately.

While among the major economies, the manufacturing PMI numbers have contracted for all. However, the shrinkage of almost 50% in India’s April manufacturing PMI was steepest among the top 10 economies. This shows the damage caused by the lockdown has far deeper consequences on the Indian economy than its developed counterparts.

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PF data acts as a leading indicator for identifying distressed companies: Heckyl study

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Companies from consumer services, industrials and financial sectors lead drop in PF score in FY20

Publicly available data from Employees’ Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) is one of the datasets that can be very useful to gain unique insights in the assessment of credit risk. In our view, a significant delay in monthly Provident Fund (PF) payment is a potential red-flag as the delay could be due to liquidity crunch faced by the company. Moreover, a substantial drop in the number of employees or amount paid for PF is also a potential red-flag as it signals layoffs or job cuts to reduce the company’s operational cost.

Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) has several business rules to identify such red-flags from PF data. Based on the rule output of the PF module for the company, Heckyl system computes the PF score.

Heckyl study on PF data for 1,000 companies has shown a drop in the PF score for 540+ companies during the financial year 2020. The companies from consumer services, industrials, financial institutions, commercial services and chemical sectors have led the drop in the PF score for the FY20.

Sector-wise PF Score

Moreover, 310+ companies, which have witnessed a fall in the PF score, have subsequently seen declined in the scores for other modules of RAS such as Financial, Charges, Credit Rating, Directors, Ownership, and GST. Read the rest of this entry »

Consumer Services, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary Companies Lead Credit Rating Downgrades

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Heckyl’s analysis of the credit rating data for 4,000 companies has shown that the Companies from Consumer Services, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financial Institutions and Commercial Services sectors have dominated the credit rating downgrades from Jan. 1, 2020 to Apr. 10, 2020.

Credit Ratings is one of the Datasets that has been captured in Heckyl’s Risk Analytics System (RAS) for both public and private Indian companies. Our system monitors the changes in a company’s credit ratings on a day-to-day basis. Moreover, our rule-based engine triggers alerts based on changes in the credit rating.

Sector-wise Company Downgrades

RAS has identified 120+ companies downgraded by the credit rating agencies from Jan. 1, 2020 to Apr. 10, 2020. Out of the total, the ratings for 27 companies have been downgraded from Investment Grade to Speculative Grade. From the list of 27 companies, the ratings for 4 corporates have been downgraded to Default from Investment Grade. Read the rest of this entry »