Seasonality Screen

Did you miss it AGAIN? A trading opportunity in Turmeric?

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Higher mandi arrivals for 2017 have slammed Turmeric prices in the past few months. Early signals of bumper production for this year were visible from February onwards. Prices, however, started reacting only from March.

While the March and May prices fell in line with past seasonality patterns, record Turmeric arrivals caused prices to buck the past seasonality trend for the month of April.

Spike in Turmeric market arrivals
Turmeric Seasonality and Market Arrival Screen (May 16, 2017)

Turmeric prices tend to fall during March and May every year on the back of new stock arrivals in the market. For the past 5-years, the average drop in Turmeric prices for March and May was 7.25 percent and 4.15 percent respectively.

On the other hand, Turmeric prices moved up during April every year. The average gain in Turmeric prices for April was 1.05 percent for the last 5-years.

In 2017, fall in Turmeric prices in March and May first half was more pronounced than the 5-year average drop in prices for these two months.

In March this year, Turmeric prices fell 8.70 percent. As on May 16, 2017, Turmeric price was down 7.59 percent when compared with April closing.

However, Turmeric prices deviated from historical trend by falling 3.50 percent during April amid record stock arrivals. Read the rest of this entry »

Did you miss this opportunity to long MCX Natural Gas in Apr’17?

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It is quiet intuitive that different seasons of a year impact the demand and availability of agricultural commodities thereby influencing the prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that seasonality plays a big factor in pricing of non-agricultural commodities as well.

Here, we present a case for Natural Gas. Prices of MCX Natural Gas gained in April every year from 2012 to 2016. The year of 2017 was no exception. MCX Natural Gas posted a gain of over 3% in April this year.

Seasonality screen - Natural Gas_09-05-2017 - Copy
[Heckyl’s Seasonality Screen]
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Heckyl’s Seasonality Screen Detects Hidden Patterns in Commodities

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Commodities are driven by demand and supply, which provides a basis for determining price directions. As commodities don’t have to deal with subjective issues like financial performance, management quality etc., they move with their respective business cycles. Commodities are broadly classified into agricultural commodities, metals and energy. Within these broad classifications, each commodity can exhibit its own trend based on respective business cycles.

wheat

[Image 1]  Read the rest of this entry »