Sentiment Analysis

These 3 companies witness drop in long-term news sentiment to 2-year low

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FiND media coverage study for BSE 100 index companies showed a significant deterioration in the long-term news sentiment for Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Vakrangee and fraud-hit Punjab National Bank (PNB).

These 3 companies have been receiving negative press coverage for quite some time. As a result, news sentiment 200-day moving average (DMA) for these 3 companies dipped to a 2-year low on Apr. 17, 2018.

BSE 100 Sentiment 200 DMA - 17-April-18[Image 1: Compare screen shows Sentiment 200-DMA] Read the rest of this entry »

FiND News Sentiment strategy beats the stock market

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With a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage, Heckyl has developed a strategy based on FiND News Sentiment Indicator for identifying bullish/ bearish patterns for the benchmark index, sector as well as individual stocks.

FiND News Sentiment Indicator reflects the underlying sentiment of news coverage on the companies. The strategy based on this indicator signals the potential impact of the news sentiment on the value of underlying index or stock.

We have constructed our strategy by taking moving averages of FiND News Sentiment Indicator. Our system generates bullish/ bearish signals based on the crossover of shorter-term (20-days) and longer-term (60-days) moving averages of FiND News Sentiment Indicator. 

Bullish: When short-term 20-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator is above long-term 60-DMA, underlying index or stock tends to rise. It reflects an improvement in news sentiment in recent time when compared with the past 2-months.

Bearish: When short-term 20-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator is below long-term 60-DMA, underlying index or stock tends to fall. It shows a deterioration in news sentiment in recent time when compared with the past 2-months.

For simplicity, we have defined sentiment intensity as a difference between 20-DMA and 60-DMA of FiND News Sentiment Indicator to showcase bullish and bearish phases.

When the value of sentiment intensity is above 0 (20-DMA > 60-DMA), then it is a sign of bullish trend ahead. On the other hand, fall in sentiment intensity value below 0 level (20-DMA < 60-DMA) reflects bearish trend ahead.

Our back-testing proved the application of FiND News Sentiment Strategy for trading/ investment in the market. FiND News Sentiment strategy has outperformed benchmark index, sector and stock returns across time periods.

Here, we are presenting the case study on the Nifty index, Nifty Pharma and Sun Pharma to showcase how bullish/bearish signals defined by News Sentiment Strategy can help trader/ investor for beating the index/ stock returns.

NIFTY INDEX

We analyzed over 1.56 lakh news items for 50 companies within the Nifty index for the past 3-years. Out the total, 1,19,162 news items were positive, while 37,175 news items were negative.

As can be seen in below chart (Image 1), bullish/bearish signals based on news sentiment strategy can give an early indication of upward/downward movement for the 50-share index.

1. Nifty - Sentiment[Image 1: Nifty Index and Bullish/ Bearish Period defined by Sentiment Intensity]

If a trader/ investor was to buy/sell Nifty as per the bullish/bearish signal and hold the position for the period till the signal reverses versus an investment in Nifty, the returns would be significantly higher.

2. Nifty - Sentiment - Returns[Image 2: Returns based on Sentiment Signal and Nifty Index performance] Read the rest of this entry »

M&M races ahead of Maruti, Tata Motors with a surge in news sentiment to 5-yr high

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Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), one of the leading automobile companies in India, witnessed a surge in news sentiment to a 5-year high helped by extremely positive media coverage in March 2018. A slew of new product launches by M&M over the past 1-month lifted news sentiment to the highest level in the past 5-years.

With buoyant media coverage, M&M has surpassed news sentiment of both Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors in March 2018 for the first time in the last 16-months.

Top Automakers - Sentiment 100 DMA - April 7[Image 1: Compare screen highlights news sentiment 100-DMA]

A series of positive news items highlighting new product launches, alternative energy and partnerships during the past 1-month pushed M&M’s news sentiment 100-day moving average (DMA) to 84.11 on Apr. 7, 2018.  Read the rest of this entry »

News mentions for Chanda Kochhar surge amid Videocon loan controversy

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Chanda Kochhar, managing director and chief executive officer, ICICI Bank, has been in the news lately after a controversy erupted over a conflict of interest in loan approved to the Videocon Group. There were reports in the media that Chanda Kochhar allegedly favored Videocon Group while granting Rs 3,250 crore loan.

News 1News 7News 5

However, ICICI Bank board termed the allegations as “malicious and unfounded” against its MD and CEO and reposed faith and confidence in Chanda Kochhar.

News 4

As the name of Chanda Kochhar cropped up in the Videocon loan controversy, news mentions for ICICI Bank chief surged towards the end of March.

ICICI Bank News - Mentions Read the rest of this entry »

How News based EWS can identify distress corporate borrowers ahead of time

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Corporate default or bankruptcy do not happen overnight. There is a sequence of events such as layoffs, legal/ regulatory issues and management change leading to default or bankruptcy.

In our view, unstructured data sets such as news is an important piece of information that can detect such a sequence of events prior to default. 

Our hypothesis is that deep-dive analytics on news data can capture the pre-default behavior of corporates. At the same time, it can also help banks to identify distress corporate borrowers ahead of time. 

To test our hypothesis, we analyzed news data for 12 US-based oil and gas exploration & production companies which went bankrupt in the past 2-years. 

Key takeways from News EWS study

Here, we present one such case of SandRidge Energy Inc which filed for bankruptcy protection in May 2016.

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SandRidge Sequence of Events

FiND Credit Risk EWS captures company-related red-flags based on a variety of business rules. Our intelligent EWS application can help lenders to get an early warning about the deterioration in corporate borrowers’ financial profile ahead of time.

To know more about FiND Credit Risk EWS, email us at info@heckyl.com

 

 

 

Analyzing Tesla’s recent downfall through an innovative lens

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FiND News Analytics and Litigation product tracks and analyses news + legal cases from thousands of data sources in real time. We have a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage by “discovery and analysis” of the news flow and legal cases in real time.

Of late, Tesla stocks have tumbled by quite. The stock price downfall coincided with negative news coverage. A review of company media coverage shows that most of the negative news items were related to Legal, Recalls, and Bankruptcy.

Sentiment and Price Read the rest of this entry »

Insight from FiND: Did you MISS the recent opportunity to short Facebook?

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FiND, an alternative data platform, analyses news + data from thousands of sources (including social media) in real time. We have a clear focus on reduction of the information arbitrage by “discovery and analysis” of the news flow in real time. Our proprietary Sentiment Engine analyzes news by applying NLP and various business rules to capture underlying sentiment (positive/ negative/ neutral) accurately.

Earlier this week, the shares of Facebook were beaten down at the Wall Street due to a privacy failure by the social media giant. It’s surfaced that Cambridge Analytica improperly used the data of 50 million Facebook users to manipulate voters in US Presidential Election 2016.

News reports highlighting concerns over privacy of FB users’ data and misuse of social network platform have been making the rounds across mainstream media for months now. The negative media coverage highlighting these concerns gathered momentum during this month. However, the stock corrected sharply only after the media reported the misuse of FB users data by Cambridge Analytica. We highlight some of the news items captured by FiND below:

FB NEWS FLOW
[Image 1: Company News Screen for FB]
Read the rest of this entry »