Did you miss this opportunity to long MCX Natural Gas in Apr’17?

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It is quiet intuitive that different seasons of a year impact the demand and availability of agricultural commodities thereby influencing the prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that seasonality plays a big factor in pricing of non-agricultural commodities as well.

Here, we present a case for Natural Gas. Prices of MCX Natural Gas gained in April every year from 2012 to 2016. The year of 2017 was no exception. MCX Natural Gas posted a gain of over 3% in April this year.

Seasonality screen - Natural Gas_09-05-2017 - Copy
[Heckyl’s Seasonality Screen]

Trading Opportunity:
As on Apr. 11, 2017 MCX Natural Gas prices were down by 0.92% for the month.
This was in contrast of historical price trend for the month of April. However, MCX Natural Gas ended positive at the end of April staying in-line with the historical trend.

One could have gone long to profit from a close to 4% price movement as MCX Natural Gas prices for April ended 3.06% higher from March closing.

The Bottom-line:
Heckyl’s Seasonality screen can help in understanding business cycles for various commodities. At the same time, seasonality screen unearths key insights from historical price behavior.

Most importantly, traders can discover various patterns within commodities using seasonality screens. They can use these historical patterns to forecast future price trend and prepare appropriate trading strategies.

To know more about Heckyl’s Commodities Trading platform, email us at info@heckyl.com

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